We’re familiar with the real life application of FOMO, “Fear of missing out”. But how about FOTU, “Fear of the unknown” as a fantasy football strategy? FOTU is the main reason I’m hesitant to pull the trigger on the likes of Antonio Brown and Joe Mixon instead of similarly priced players. It’s also woven within the DNA of my portfolio building.
Tight end rankings reveal a top-heavy landscape short on matchup-shifting or season-lifting talent. Naturally, George Kittle, Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz demand a premium.
Running back tiers receive an initial split after the top four, leaving James Conner and Dalvin Cook in my crosshairs at the turn.
Mike Evans and Odell Beckham Jr. enter 2019 in situations expected to be conducive to production. Wide receiver tiers and rankings generally express this sentiment, but not quite to a degree that captures the profitable ceilings of each.
Once the top three (or four) running backs are off the board, the conventional move has been to look toward the perimeter. Wide receiver rankings have DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones and Davante Adams situated as the top three options.
Christian McCaffrey would be the overwhelming choice for the No. 1 pick. As it stands, he’s joined by a trio of backs each with his own argument as the top option. McCaffrey is securely situated as my No. 3 overall selection, so I’m completely selling any anti-McCaffrey sentiment.
NFL history doesn’t provide clear guidelines for how to handle staged absences. Therefore it’s difficult to devise a strategy for how to handle the threat of an Ezekiel Elliott holdout. Personally, I’m dropping him down to No. 7 overall.
Alvin Kamara is my No. 2 pick in 2019 thanks to his 1,000-1,000 ceiling. The feat is rare, but Kamara is in position to pull it off.
A number of factors appear lined up in Kamara’s favor heading into 2019. The Saints increased their run ratio in each of the two seasons since drafting Kamara. From 2016-18 that figure started at 36.6 before climbing to 44.4 and 46.6 percent, respectively.
Saquon Barkley is fantasy football’s first pick thanks to a presumed massive workload and his demonstrated big-play ability.
I’m not typically aggressive in my pursuit of rookie wide receivers, but A.J. Brown has emerged as an appealing late-round lottery ticket.
Considering his raw talent and the thin selection of weapons behind Corey Davis*, I fully expect Brown to receive the opportunity to deliver an immediate impact and perhaps assume clear No. 2 receiver duties shortly thereafter.
You can sell yourself on potential with Brown in this case because you’re paying next to nothing in draft capital. As someone who’s so electrifying after the catch and capable on both the inside and outside, Brown possesses the versatility and big-play ability necessary to excel in an offense not that far away from being interesting.
*Who’s going to command a higher target share than Brown? Delanie Walker will be 35 in August and only deemed himself “85 percent” in May coming off a dislocated ankle suffered in Week 1 of the 2018 season. I also expect the Titans to continue running a high percentage of multiple-tight end sets, keeping secondary receivers off the field (key word: continuity).