Nick Chubb not a sound first-round investment

Fading Nick Chubb at his rising ADP is the type of shrewd move that leads to fantasy football success.
Nick Chubb is miscast as a profitable option in the first round.

“Fade Nick Chubb” is one of the potential cheat codes I’m implementing into my portfolio this season. There are enough reasons to suggest those who chase Chubb will wind up disappointed in his serving of touches.

My doubts start at the top of the offense. I’m anticipating the Browns employing a clear pass-to-run preference under Freddie Kitchens and Todd Monken, both pass-minded coaches. As it stands, their lack of depth at the running back position could actually hinder Chubb’s quest for heavy work. The Browns will be able to lean on a deep stable of talent as a way to preserve Chubb as they await Kareem Hunt’s return.

AFC North backs: Buy James Conner’s volume | Sell Cincinnati, Joe Mixon

And speaking of Hunt, are we supposed to ignore his impending return? I simply can’t get behind the idea of using my first- or second-round pick on a running back who has another back — one who some consider superior — set to assume a significant piece of the pie just in time for the playoff push.

Every new season provides breakouts and those who fall short of the hype. If you bet on the right odds, you can do a better job of navigating between the two. Consequently, I’m placing all of my chips on Nick Chubb representing the latter in 2019.

CWi Last Word: Nick Chubb

I’ll be treating Chubb on par with the likes of Derrick Henry and Mark Ingram (in terms of average draft position). Not with someone worthy of the draft’s most premium capital.

CWi: 45 | Y! ADP: 14.1 | FFC: 20.0

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